Giving up meat certainly has many advantages for both our health and the ecology of the planet. But if everyone suddenly turns vegetarian, millions of people could be affected.
People become vegetarians for various reasons. For some, the suffering of animals is unbearable, others choose a healthy lifestyle. Someone is seriously concerned about environmental issues and is fighting for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
No matter how much meat lovers protest, vegetarianism has many advantages. It seems that the more people would give up meat, the better it would be for the whole world. However, if suddenly all the inhabitants of the planet become convinced vegetarians, millions, if not billions, of people could suffer greatly.
"In fact, it's a tale of two different worlds," says Andrew Jarvis of the International Center for Tropical Agriculture in Colombia. "In developed countries, vegetarianism will bring a lot of environmental and health benefits. But in poor third world countries, it will have very negative consequences." ".
The first thing scientists thought about was climate change. Food production accounts for a quarter to a third of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, with the livestock industry a major culprit.
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Despite this, the impact of our eating habits on climate change is greatly underestimated. The average American family of four produces more greenhouse gas emissions from meat consumption than from driving two cars. However, it is cars, not steaks, that become the subject of heated debates about global warming.
"Most people don't think about the impact of food on climate change," says Tim Benton, a food security expert at the University of Leeds. "But if we start eating even a little less meat right now, the lives of our children and grandchildren will improve significantly."
Exactly how much, researcher Marco Springman of the "Future of Food" program at the University of Oxford tried to calculate. The scientist and his colleagues calculated with the help of a computer what the world would be like if the entire population of the Earth refused meat by 2050.
Food production, especially from livestock, also takes up a lot of land. Together with harmful emissions into the atmosphere, this destroys the natural diversity of species. Of the five billion hectares of agricultural land worldwide, 68% is used for livestock.
If we all choose vegetarianism, 80% of these lands can be restored to meadows and forests, which will begin to absorb carbon and reduce the effects of climate change. In the former pastures, populations of animals that have suffered due to the destruction of their natural habitat, such as buffalo or wolves, will recover.
And the remaining 10-20% of the former pastures could be used for growing crops. Although such an expansion seems small, it would be more than enough, since a third of agricultural land today is grown for livestock, not for humans.
Of course, environmental restoration and the transition to plant-based agriculture will require planning and investment. After all, we cannot expect that the forests and meadows will recover by themselves as soon as the cows are removed from the pastures.
Carnivorous professions
People who used to work in the livestock industry will also need help when learning new professions. Obviously, they will be able to find employment in agriculture and forestry or in the production of biofuels from agricultural by-products that are currently used to feed livestock.
Some farm jobs will still remain, for example, to keep livestock where it is needed from an environmental point of view. "The ecology of the Scottish Highlands is largely dependent on sheep grazing," says Peter Alexander, a socio-ecological systems modeling specialist at the University of Edinburgh.
If we do not provide career alternatives and retraining of former livestock workers, we cannot avoid high levels of unemployment and social upheavals, especially in rural communities.
But even the best planning and subsidies will not be able to offer alternative sources of income for everyone. Approximately one-third of the landmass consists of arid or rocky lands suitable only for livestock breeding.
"Without livestock, life in certain regions is likely to become impossible for humans," explains Cambridge University researcher Ben Phalan, who studies the balance between food demand and biodiversity. This is especially true of nomadic peoples, such as Mongols and Berbers, who will have to settle in cities and obviously lose their cultural identity.
However, this will not only apply to nomads. Rejection of meat will significantly affect the culture of many peoples of the world. After all, meat is an important part of history, traditions and national identity. In many nations, cattle are presented as a wedding gift, and meat dishes are an integral part of many holidays, such as Christmas turkey or roast beef.
The impact on health is also ambiguous. Springmann's computer modeling shows that, under the condition of universal vegetarianism, by 2050 the mortality rate in all countries of the world will decrease by 6-10%. Mainly due to reduction in cases of coronary heart disease, diabetes, stroke and some types of cancer.
Half of the reason for this will be the exclusion of red meat from the diet, as well as a decrease in the calorie content of food and more consumption of fruits and vegetables. And if everyone switches to a vegan diet, the health benefits will be even greater.
The main thing is moderation
Fortunately, to improve the situation, it is not necessary to convert the whole world to vegetarianism or veganism.
The main thing is moderation in the frequency and volume of meat consumption. One study found that simply following the World Health Organization's dietary recommendations in Great Britain alone would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 17%. This figure will drop by another 40% if citizens exclude animal products and processed meat snacks from their diet.
"These are completely imperceptible changes, for example, a slightly smaller piece of meat for lunch," says Jarvis. "This does not mean that you will have to give up meat once and for all."
Certain changes in the food system, for example, increasing meat prices and reducing fresh fruits and vegetables, will contribute to a healthier lifestyle and environmental protection, adds Springmann.
Solving the problem of inefficiency is also important. Today, less than 50% of the calories produced by food are used efficiently - due to food waste, waste and overeating.
"The efficiency of the food industry can be significantly increased, and at the same time, it can be made more ecological, kinder to animals and profitable for farmers. If meat is produced not as a product of daily consumption, but as a delicacy," Benton notes, "farmers will have the same profit, but animals will be raised in completely different ways."
In fact, solutions to reduce harmful emissions from livestock farming have been around for a long time. What is lacking is the will to implement them.
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